Insights

Why Millennials Should Own Value Stocks

October 29, 2020

As a millennial working in the investment industry, trends impacting younger investors tend to pique my interest. Millennials (individuals born 1981–1996) are currently in a life stage marked by major financial decisions with large purchases, debt repayment and savings vying for attention. Regardless of an individual’s priorities, one point is difficult to dispute: how millennials invest can have serious implications for their long-term financial wellbeing.

From an asset allocation perspective, millennials generally seem more interested in owning high-flying technology stocks than traditional value names (stocks trading below their estimated worth). A recent Business Insider survey1 indicated the millennial subset’s favorite long-term stock picks are technology-oriented mega-cap companies with the top three responses (Amazon, Microsoft and Apple) representing nearly 20% of all votes. Yet millennial investors, more than any other demographic, may be best positioned to benefit from at least some value exposure in their equity portfolios.

The Millennial Mindset

Before exploring why millennials should own value stocks, it’s helpful to understand why they typically don’t. By now, the image of an experience-mongering millennial in pursuit of instant gratification is cliché; however, several well-documented behavioral factors may be contributing to millennials overweighting traditional growth stocks.

Familiarity bias – Instinctually, people favor what they know. Familiarity can cause individuals to be loyal (sometimes irrationally so) to the things they’re exposed to most. For millennials, this bias commonly manifests itself as confusing “products I use regularly” with attractive investment opportunities. For example, shopping daily on Amazon should not drive a decision to buy the company’s stock.

Social proof – The cognitive tendency to base one’s own behavior on that of others is known as social proof. For millennials, this factor is amplified by the integral role that technology plays in day-to-day life. In particular, social media and online review culture (i.e., seeking solutions that are “highest rated” or “most popular” among peers) may make millennials more likely to pursue top-performing or broadly recommended stocks when making investment decisions.

Loss aversion – According to behavioral economists, individuals prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains of equal magnitude. This cognitive bias explains why the pain of losing $20 outweighs the excitement of finding $20. In a relatively short timeframe, millennial investors have experienced three major market declines (driven by 9/11, the global financial crisis and Covid-19), potentially leading them to avoid historically out-of-favor value stocks for fear of suffering additional losses.

Setting Up for Success

Recent headlines indicate that many millennial investors have used pandemic-related volatility to increase their equity exposure. In tandem, the introduction of mobile apps that place investment opportunities at one’s fingertips (and even offer “free stocks” for downloading) has broken down the perceived barriers to investing for millennials. In light of greater accessibility—and our human behavioral tendencies—why should millennials own value stocks?

  1. Fundamentals are important. Benjamin Graham and David Dodd laid the foundation for value investing in Security Analysis,2 published in 1934. The book encouraged readers to estimate stocks’ intrinsic values using fundamental factors, such as company assets, earnings and dividend payouts, then seek securities trading at discounts to those values. Nearly a century later, fundamentals still matter, although they are sometimes overshadowed by enthusiasm around a particular company or dynamic CEO. For instance, Tesla (the number four response in the millennial stock pick survey) trades at an enterprise value 10 times that of Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) or BMW, which also have burgeoning electric vehicle businesses. Despite these valuations, Tesla generates significantly less cash flow than either peer and underperforms both on key fundamental metrics. At Oakmark, we view the relationship between a company’s share price and its underlying fundamental value as central to investment success. By employing a team of experienced analysts whose primary mandate is to identify price-value discrepancies, we implement a disciplined, fundamentals-based approach that can unlock value on behalf of our investors.
  2. Diversification reduces risk. Results of a recent Glassdoor survey3 identifying millennials’ top 10 target employers look eerily similar to their list of favorite long-term stock picks. However, over-concentrating in shares of a company (or industry) in which one works can have dire consequences. For example, in 2001, 62% of Enron employees’ 401(k) assets were in company stock, leaving thousands of people to rebuild both careers and retirement savings upon the firm’s collapse. Aside from diversifying employment exposure, value stocks can offset outsized weightings to momentum stocks in passive portfolios. By trying to play it safe in a market-cap weighted index fund, millennials may unintentionally invite risk by loading into a handful of popular names.
  3. A long time horizon creates opportunity. With even the oldest millennials looking at 25-30 years until retirement, this investor group has a relatively long time horizon. In value investing, patience presents opportunities. Oakmark has demonstrated over four decades of managing portfolios that discipline in the face of short-term volatility can reward investors. In contrast, attempting to outguess near-term price movements is a speculative task. Although trading has become cheaper and easier for millennials, leveraging these trends to chase performance may not produce long-term benefits.

A guiding principle since Oakmark’s founding has been educating investors. We invite readers to explore our online content, including commentaries, videos, podcasts, etc., designed to make value investing more approachable. We welcome questions and feedback. And we hope more millennials will follow us–where else but on social media! (Twitter: @HarrisOakmark)

1https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-picks-top-7-long-term-millennial-investor-market-panel-2020-8-1029539822#

2Graham, Benjamin and Dodd, David (1934). Security Analysis. McGraw-Hill.

3https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/26/glassdoor-the-10-companies-millennials-most-want-to-work-for.html

The holdings mentioned comprise the following percentages of the Fund’s total net assets as of 09/30/2020:

0%SECURITYOakmark FundOakmark Select FundOakmark Equity and Income FundOakmark Global FundOakmark Global Select FundOakmark International FundOakmark International Small Cap fund
Amazon0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Apple0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
BMW0%0%0%0%0%3.3%0%
Daimler0%0%0%3.6%6.8%3.9%0%
Microsoft0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Tesla0%0%0%0%0%0%0%

Portfolio holdings are not intended as recommendations of individual stocks and are subject to change. The Funds disclaim any obligation to advise shareholders of such changes. Information about portfolio holdings does not represent a recommendation or an endorsement to Fund shareholders or other members of the public to buy or sell any security contained in the Funds’ portfolios. Portfolio holdings are current to the date listed but are subject to change any time. There are no assurances that the securities will remain in the Funds’ portfolios after the date listed or that the securities that were previously sold may not be repurchased.

Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.
Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark Select Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.
Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark Equity and Income Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.
Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark Global Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.
Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark Global Select Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.
Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark International Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.
Access the full list of holdings for the Oakmark International Small Cap Fund as of the most recent quarter-end.

The Price to Value for a stock is the ratio of the current stock price divided by the intrinsic value as calculated by the investment team’s valuation model. The Price to Value for a portfolio is the weighted average of the price to value for each stock in the portfolio.

Investing in value stocks presents the risk that value stocks may fall out of favor with investors and underperform growth stocks during given periods.

The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein (including current investment themes, the research and investment process, and portfolio characteristics) are for informational purposes only and represent the investments and views of the portfolio managers and Harris Associates L.P. as of the date written and are subject to change and may change based on market and other conditions and without notice. This content is not a recommendation of or an offer to buy or sell a security and is not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate.

Certain comments herein are based on current expectations and are considered “forward-looking statements”. These forward looking statements reflect assumptions and analyses made by the portfolio managers and Harris Associates L.P. based on their experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments, and other factors they believe are relevant. Actual future results are subject to a number of investment and other risks and may prove to be different from expectations. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements.

The Oakmark Funds are distributed by Harris Associates Securities L.P.  Member FINRA.  Before investing in any Oakmark Fund, you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, management fees and other expenses. This and other important information is contained in a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing. For more information, please visit https://oakmark.com or call 1-800-OAKMARK (625-6275).

Lauren Digani
Manager, Institutional Client Service